Bill Miller gave a recent interview to "Smart Money" where he was specially happy in summarizing some aspects I also believe are key to investing:
" ... the only sustainable [market] anomalies, I think, have to be behavioral, in that behavioral anomalies arise from the way that large groups of individuals function psychologically — the way they react to information, the way that they process it, the sorts of errors that are either cognitive or emotional. Those are the sorts of things that are really unlikely to be arbitraged away. That is, if we know, as all the data indicates, that people feel a loss twice as acutely as they feel a gain, then you know that until people stop doing that in the aggregate, that losses will be things people will shy away from, and that's a potential source of excess return, because you can predict how they're gonna behave in the aggregate."
" ...if you do what other people do, you get the results that other people get. So by diversifying your sources of information, you get insights, analogies and metaphors, and you see connections that other people might not see. That's a fruitful way to go about thinking about markets... "
Monday, June 27, 2005
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